In this course the learner will be shown how to generate forecasts of game results in professional sports using Python. The main emphasis of the course is on teaching the method of logistic regression as a way of modeling game results, using data on team expenditures. The learner is taken through the process of modeling past results, and then using the model to forecast the outcome games not yet played. The course will show the learner how to evaluate the reliability of a model using data on betting odds. The analysis is applied first to the English Premier League, then the NBA and NHL. The course also provides an overview of the relationship between data analytics and gambling, its history and the social issues that arise in relation to sports betting, including the personal risks.
Dieser Kurs ist Teil der Spezialisierung Spezialisierung Sports Performance Analytics
von
Spezialisierung Sports Performance AnalyticsUniversity of MichiganÜber diesen Kurs
von
University of Michigan
The mission of the University of Michigan is to serve the people of Michigan and the world through preeminence in creating, communicating, preserving and applying knowledge, art, and academic values, and in developing leaders and citizens who will challenge the present and enrich the future.
Lehrplan - Was Sie in diesem Kurs lernen werden
Week 1
This module introduces the regression models in dealing with the categorical outcome variables in sport contest (i.e., Win, Draw, Lose). It explains the Linear Probability Model (LPM) in terms of its theoretical foundations, computational applications, and empirical limitations. Then the module introduces and demonstrates the Logistic Regression as a better substitute of LPM for the categorical dependent variables.
Week 2
This module explores the relationship between probability and betting markets. It explains the concept of odds, and the relationship between betting odds and probabilities. It then develops a measure of the accuracy of betting odds using sports examples, and assesses the meaning of efficiency in betting markets.
Week 3
This module shows how to forecast the outcome of EPL soccer games using an ordered logit model and publicly available information. It assesses the accuracy of these forecasts against the betting odds and shows that they are remarkably accurate.
Week 4
This module assesses the efficacy of the EPL forecasting model covered in the previous week by replicating the model in the context of three North American team sports leagues (i.e., NHL, NBA, MLB). Specifically, this module shows how to forecast the outcome of NHL, NBA, MLB regular season games using an ordered logit model and publicly available information. It assesses the accuracy of these forecasts against the betting odds.
Über den Spezialisierung Sports Performance Analytics
Sports analytics has emerged as a field of research with increasing popularity propelled, in part, by the real-world success illustrated by the best-selling book and motion picture, Moneyball. Analysis of team and player performance data has continued to revolutionize the sports industry on the field, court, and ice as well as in living rooms among fantasy sports players and online sports gambling.
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