In this module, we'll first learn that while climate models are a key tools for making projections about the future Arctic, they also have biases and uncertainties. We'll then take a look at projected changes in temperature, precipitation and sea ice. We'll see that the Arctic is expected to continue to warm more strongly than the rest of the planet, that Arctic precipitation is likely to increase and that the sea ice cover will continue to shrink. However, it will also become clear that the magnitude of these changes will very much depend on human behavior - specifically, future rates of fossil fuel burning. Finally, we'll look at the permafrost carbon feedback, and its potential to lead to further warming of the planet.