Welcome back. Now that we have a good understanding of group development let's turn our attention to the important topic of group decision making. After all, decision making is arguably the most significant thing that groups do. Most groups are formed and exist in order to make decisions about things. Either out of necessity, there's some problem we need to solve that requires a decision among different solutions or strategies. Or opportunity, there's some prospect we can take advantage of if we can just decide on the right course of action. Decision making and groups are also closely related because so many things we need to make decisions about are complicated, and require input and expertise from other people. Or because the outcome of your decision will affect many different people. So their interests need to be represented by groups in the decision making process. And all of this happens through communication. What we decide and how we decide are functions of how we interact with each other. And the quality of our decision practices and decision outcomes are directly related to the quality of our communication. So if we're going to enhance our understanding of group communication in this course, we certainly should devote a substantial amount of attention to the topic of decision making. Now, unfortunately, groups are often prone to making bad decisions. And those bad decisions can have devastating consequences for the people involved. Whether those bad decisions directly affect people inside the group, or have more of an impact on people outside of the group. Let's face it, the stakes can be pretty high for the decisions you're making in the groups that you're involved in. They can have major implications for how money is spent, how resources are allocated, whether businesses thrive or fail, whether policies are effective or harmful, whether new ideas bring positive change or create new problems. Group decision making is fraught with difficulties and there are competing interests and alternatives and motivations pulling group members in many different directions. Making it difficult to overcome the inertia that often seems to be pulling groups towards bad decisions. Or at least, sub-optimal decisions. Plus, we'll never really understand exactly why people or groups decide in favor of one idea versus another. There is usually a degree of mystery and irrationality in every decision making process. So we're limited in our ability to eliminate bad group decisions. But fortunately groups also do make a lot of good decisions and there are many things we can do to increase the likelihood that we'll make more good decisions more often. Especially regarding how we communicate in our groups throughout the decision making process. And that's what this whole course on group communication is all about. We'll never be able to anticipate or predict all the situations our groups will face, and devise perfect strategies for every situation. But we certainly can put ideas into practice that will increase the probability of more favorable outcomes more often. So, let's look at how we can do that with our Group Decision Making. First, in this video we'll cover several of the key decision making traps groups often fall into. So we'll know what to avoid. Then in the next video, we'll learn about several effective decision making practices that can help us overcome these decision making traps. And we'll wrap up with a final video that explores creativity and innovation in our decision making. Those times where we need more than just a routine decision. When our decision making requires a degree of novelty and originality to get beyond the status quo and come up with new ideas. Let's start by looking at several decision making traps we're all susceptible to. Where do bad decisions come from? Scholars from a variety of fields have been studying this question for decades. And a substantial amount of research points to the idea that we all have hidden biases and distortions in our thinking. Many of which fall into common patterns and themes that we can identify. And of course these shortcomings are even magnified in groups, when we combine our deficiencies with other people. But we can overcome these biases and distortions in our thinking, especially if we are more open and aware of what they are so we can recognize when they creep up. Many books and articles have been written about various decision making defects. And some scholars at Harvard and UCLA, John Hammond and Ralph Keeney and Howard Raiffa, wrote a helpful piece in the Harvard Business Review several years ago that summarizes the key themes of this research. They identified six hidden traps in our decision making that we need to be careful not to fall into. Let's review all of them. First is the anchoring trap. Now this happens when we give disproportionate weight to the first idea or solution that is being offered. Have you ever noticed how easy it is for the first idea you hear to become the standard by which you evaluate all other ideas? Now there's nothing wrong with this, per se. The first idea you hear might actually be the best. But the problem comes when we give unequal weight to this initial idea. Simply because it's first, not because of the merit of the idea itself. That's the anchoring trap, you get anchored too firmly to the first idea or solution you hear. And it can distort your thinking by preventing you from fully considering other ideas that come up later. Next is the status quo trap. The status quo is just the way things are, how you've always done it, the conventional wisdom. And it is so tempting to react to new problems and situations by simply deciding to respond the way we always have, just do what we normally do. It's easier, it's familiar, and it lets us get on with other things. And sometimes this can be the right response, but it also can be a trap. Because new problems usually require new solutions. We don't want to put new wine in old wine skins, as the saying goes. And don't get trapped by the status quo. Then we have the sunk-cost trap. Sunk costs are all the expenses, time, money, energy, personnel, associated with an idea or solution or plan that we pursued initially but then decided to stop. The costs are sunk. They can't be recovered. Now once again, it can be so tempting to keep pursuing a bad idea or a bad plan simply because we already have so much invested in it. We have to make it work. But that's the trap. That's what keeps you locked into a bad decision. You know, there's an old Turkish proverb that says no matter how far you've gone down the wrong road, turn around. Once you realize it's the wrong idea, or the wrong plan, or the wrong strategy, you have to turn around. No amount of further investment will make a bad idea work. You're just propping up a bad decision, making things worse, and probably delaying the inevitable. So ignore sunk costs and turn around. Then we have the confirming evidence trap. Most problems require us to gather data or figures or evidence so we can make an informed decision. This is tough. [LAUGH] There's lots of information out there. And it can take a lot of time to do the necessary due diligence to make a wise decision. But in today's information landscape it's very easy to find some website or book or study or video or news report that confirms what you already believe or want to be true. And that's the trap. Deciding that you already know what the answer or solution should be, so you only seek evidence that confirms your preconceptions. Rather than gathering evidence to inform your understanding of the issues. Next we have the framing trap. What we decide and how we decide is very dependent upon how issues are framed. The language we use to describe and explain various ideas. It makes a big difference whether a new incident is framed as a threat or an opportunity. As a favor or an obligation. As intentional or accidental. And these subtle changes in language can send our discussions off in very different directions and will greatly affect the decisions we make. Now the trap is getting stuck in a particular framing of an issue, and not being willing to consider other frames of reference. A narrow framing may trap us, preventing us from recognizing or considering valuable alternatives that could help us solve the problem at hand. And finally we have the estimating or forecasting trap. Of course, none of us can predict the future. Yet, so many of our decisions are about future events and the future impacts of various plans or strategies. We simply have to make estimations and forecasts about the future. But the trap is when we get too locked into our original estimations and forecasts, unwilling to change when new information becomes available. So we have to hold our early estimations with an open hand, always seeking new information so we can confirm or adjust our forecast if initial conditions change. So that's a brief overview of the dangerous hidden traps that can plague our decision making. Let's draw a few conclusions. First all of these traps together point towards two key things. The quality of the information your group is working with, and the perspectives people are taking in your group. So many bad decisions are related to bad information and limited perspectives. So if we want to improve the quality of our group decision making we have to make sure we're working with good information and that we're exploring issues from multiple perspectives. A second conclusion, is that most of these decision making traps are related. If you fall into one trap, it's often more likely that you're on the verge of falling into other traps as well. For example, if you get anchored too strongly to an initial idea, you might then be more likely to seek confirming evidence to validate that idea. Which makes you even more firmly anchored, making it more difficult to give up on this idea because you're so invested in it. And thus more likely that you'll fall into the sunk-cost trap. And then to justify this course of action you'll probably frame things differently to convince others that this is still a good idea. Thus perpetuating a bad decision and pulling other group members into the traps with you. This is why it's so important to recognize these decision making traps because once you fall into one trap it can start a downward spiral of many other traps that are difficult to get out of. A third conclusion is that we have to remember that we are always susceptible to these decision making traps. Even if we avoided some of the traps in the past, or previously made some good decisions. Avoiding traps and making good decisions certainly makes us wiser, but it's no immunity from future decision making traps. That's because every situation is different. And the stakes and implications and consequences of each decision are different. So the susceptibility of decision making traps starts over again with each new decision. Yes we'll be better at recognizing the traps but we still have to be vigilant to avoid them. Don't make the mistake of thinking that just because you were successful in the past you're guaranteed success in the future. And finally I hope you can see how all these decision making traps are related to communication. Avoiding or falling into these traps depends on how we interact with each other in our groups. Usually related to how we respond to each other when ideas are raised or suggestions are made. For example, when someone frames an idea in a certain way, group members can keep quiet and accept this initial framing, potentially leading to the framing trap. Or you can speak up and offer an alternative framing for the group to consider. Plus, think about how this relates back to the notion of group development. If it's not normal, remember group norms? For this kind of constructive critique and discussion in your group, you are more likely to fall into these traps. You're more likely to accept the initial framing of an idea or anchoring position. You're more likely to accept confirming information and not offer counter evidence. And you're more likely to go along with a bad idea you're already invested in because you're not willing to challenge the status quo or ignore sunk costs. So we get ourselves into these traps but we can also avoid these traps through effective group communication. We'll build off of this idea in our next video, exploring specific communication practices we can enact in order to avoid some of these decision making traps and make better overall decisions. After all, it's not enough just to know what to avoid. We also need to know what to do instead. And that's the focus of our next lesson. I'll see you then.
